The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been stagnating between $6,600 and $7,200 for a few weeks, but finally, a breakout occurred to the upside, which meant a 10% push towards $7,750.
So what can be expected from the markets with just over two weeks before the halving for Bitcoin?
BTC USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The price of Bitcoin held the $6,800 area earlier this week as support, after which it started to rumble up for a test of the resistances. These were then broken to the upside, which squeezed a massive amount of shorts out of the market.
This squeeze resulted in a push towards the next resistance level at $7,700-7,800, as the chart shows.
Currently, a new range is defined for Bitcoin. The resistance is found at the $7,700-7,800 area, while the support is found between $7,275 and $7,350. As long as the price of Bitcoin remains above this support level, further upwards pressure and momentum are warranted, especially going towards the halving.
CME gap at $9,000 is still up for grabs
BTC CME 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The BTC chart from the CME Futures is providing data regarding “gaps.” These gaps are created during the weekend as CME futures are not open on Saturdays and Sundays. Gaps are often used as an additional narrative for traders to trade on, which makes the upside of the current market interesting.
The chart is showing a significantly large gap between $8,280 and $9,055, which is likely to occur at some point. Alongside with the current gap structure, multiple other gaps are found at the upside, as there are others, specifically at $10,100 and at $11,675.
Weekly reclaims the 100-Week MA for support
BTC USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView
The weekly chart of Bitcoin is showing a clear breakthrough in the 100-Week MA. Closing above the 100-Week MA would give strength to the market.
However, further upwards momentum should be warranted if the horizontal resistance level at $7,700 is broken to the upside. As the chart is showing, further continuation towards $9,000 is on the tables if $7,700 breaks.
Total market capitalization holds $190 billion support and faces next level
Total market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The total market capitalization cryptocurrency chart is providing a clear view. The $190 billion zone has held as support, which was crucial for any further upwards momentum.
Currently, the total market capitalization chart is facing the next resistance level at $220 billion. Breaking through this level would warrant further upwards momentum towards $235-245 billion for the cryptocurrency markets.
So what are the key support levels now?
From the chart, I’d like to see $202-207 billion holds as support, as that’s the resistance the market capitalization broke through. Once the market cap breaks below this level, further downwards tests at $175 billion are back on the table.
Altcoin market capitalization gained more than 100% in past weeks
Total altcoin market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
The altcoin market capitalization is showing strength as the capitalization gained 111% since the big crash on Black Thursday.
Similar to the total market capitalization, a breakout above the green levels occurred in the past few days, resulting in upwards moves for several altcoins.
The next resistance to break is the level of around $79-80 billion. Next, further upwards momentum is likely to occur towards $92-94 billion. However, losing the green levels and tests at $66 and $57.5 billion should be expected.
The bullish scenario for Bitcoin price
BTC USD bullish scenario 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Either way, both scenarios are quite simple, given that Bitcoin broke out of a sideways range. As long as the green levels around $7,300 hold as support, further upwards momentum is in play.
Moreover, the halving narrative is also becoming increasingly important. Such a narrative could create FOMO (fear of missing out) and generate some more buying pressure leading up to the event. Be aware, however, as such events typically end up in “buy the rumor, sell the news” fashion. In other words, a substantial rally going into the event with a selloff after the event should not be unexpected.
In any case, holding $7,300 as support strengthens the bullish case. The price of Bitcoin could be hovering around this range for a while before attacking either of the levels.
A breakthrough of the $7,700 area would likely warrant further upwards momentum with targets of $8,500 and $9,000 (as that’s also the CME gap).
The bearish scenario for Bitcoin price
BTC USD bearish scenario 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The bearish scenario is also straightforward. If the price of Bitcoin starts to rally towards the resistance but then sees a selloff afterward, a temporary top is likely to be in. Particularly, since the $7,700 area was the last level of defense before the Black Thursday BTC price crash.
If that level can’t be reclaimed as support, lower levels must then be retested before the market can regroup for any further upward moves.
Thus, a selloff resulting in a retest of $7,250 and immediate rejection of $7,400 would be a signal for further downwards momentum with the next targets at $6,800 and $6,500.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Author: Cointelegraph By Michaël van de Poppe